Launching spring 2026

Protect what matters. Or take a view.

Simple yes-or-no predictions on real prices — grain, gold, crypto.
You always see what you risk. No charts, no jargon.

See live events→Join the waitlist

Tobique TGC licensedTobique TGC · DLAG

Settled by public dataEurostat · NOAA · SLF

Max loss = ticket priceNo leverage

WHEAT · THIS MONTHCloses in 12d 6h

Will wheat fall below €200?

Now: €215 · 4,200 players

38% Yes62% No

For decades, only governments and
insurance companies got to hedge
against bad weather, bad harvests,
bad seasons.

Now anyone can.

— and we tell you the math.

Live now · updated nightly

What's open this week

AGRICULTUREend-of-periodwindow closes 2026-09-30

EU 2026 wheat yield > 130 Mt

p_yes = 43%

43%

Source: Eurostat · WASDE4,200 players

SNOWFALLend-of-periodwindow closes 2027-03-31

Davos 2026-27 snowfall > 350 cm

p_yes = 26%

26%

Source: SLF · Météo-France1,840 players

FROSTfirst-touchwindow closes 2026-05-15

Frost ≤ −2°C in Bordeaux before May 15

p_yes = 29%

29%

Source: Météo-France720 players

ENERGYend-of-periodwindow closes 2026-12-31

TTF gas > €55/MWh on 2026-12-31

p_yes = 41%

41%

Source: ICE3,100 players

INFLATIONend-of-periodwindow closes 2026-06-05

EU HICP May print > 2.8%

p_yes = 44%

44%

Source: Eurostat5,640 players

GOLDend-of-periodwindow closes 2026-05-30

XAU/USD > $4,850 by 2026-05-30

p_yes = 32%

32%

Source: LMAX · ICE2,460 players

How it works

Three steps. Thirty seconds.

No charts, no jargon. Pick a side and see exactly what you risk.

Pick what you care about

Wheat. Gold. Bitcoin. Frost. Inflation. Things that already affect your business.

Buy a ticket

Yes or no. €5 or €5,000. Your max loss is the ticket price — never more.

Public data decides

Eurostat, NOAA, SLF, ICE, Météo-France. Same data your insurance company uses. We publish the source URL and a SHA-256 with every settlement.

Five lives

Real businesses. Real protection.

A farmer, a vintner, a hotelier, a baker, a resort owner. Different worries, same ticket.

Tom · Vidzeme
"If wheat collapses, the harvest still has to pay."
Tom prices in 1.9× on a wheat-down ticket. If the market falls, his ticket fills the gap.
— koef 1.9×
Sophie · Médoc
"One frost night and the year is gone."
Sophie buys a frost-touch ticket. The night temperature drops below −2°C, the ticket settles before sunrise.
— koef 2.8×
Klaus · St Anton
"When the snow doesn't come, the lifts don't run."
Klaus hedges a low-snow season. Cash flow keeps moving even when the chairs don't.
— koef 2.2×
Maria · Mallorca
"Bookings drop and the bills don't."
Maria takes a low-occupancy ticket. If summer arrivals slip, the ticket covers the shortfall.
— koef 1.8×
Andris · Riga
"Flour up, gas up, bread the same price."
Andris hedges grain and energy together. Two tickets, one protected margin.
— koef 1.9×

Settlement · by public record

Every outcome, signed and published.

Settlement is the moment your ticket pays — or doesn't. Most operators decide that themselves.

We don't.

Every VigFi event is settled by a single public source — chosen before the market opens, written into the ticket terms, never changed. We poll the source, archive the raw response, hash it, and publish the transcript.

You can verify any outcome. So can a regulator. So can your accountant.

EU HICP April 2026 print > 3.0%

→ settled YES

Source: Eurostat
URL: ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/hicp
Asked at: 2026-05-01 09:00:00 UTC
Got back: 3.1% (HICP all-items YoY)
SHA-256: ab23e9cc4f0d03f7a9b6c1a7e2d1c8a2b7f…c891b0f4e7d4c9a0b2a1e6d8f0e7a3b9

Threshold met by +0.1pp. Trigger: window-end

Verify on Eurostat →

What you can predict

Across ten domains and counting.

Pick the world your business already lives in.

Crop yields

Wheat, maize, barley, oilseeds

1.7×–6×end-of-period

Snowfall

Alpine, Pyrenees, Tatras

1.7×–15×end-of-period

Frost touch

Bordeaux, Champagne, Mosel

2×–15×first-touch

Inflation

EU HICP, US CPI, national

1.7×–5×end-of-period

Hurricane season

NOAA Atlantic, Pacific

2×–12×end-of-period

Energy spot

TTF gas, German baseload

1.7×–15×end-of-period

Tourism

Hotel occupancy, arrivals

1.7×–4×end-of-period

Livestock prices

Pork, beef, dairy

1.7×–6×end-of-period

Real-estate index

Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn €/m²

1.7×–5×end-of-period

Sports macro

Attendance, goals, medals

1.7×–10×end-of-period

Financial-binary

Gold, BTC, NDX, FX

1.7×–100×end-of-period

Coming soon

Suggest a market — let's price it.

Request a market →

The math · no hidden house edge

We tell you the vig.

Every betting platform takes a margin. Most hide it. We don't.

The "vig" is the difference between the fair payout (1 ÷ true probability) and the koef we offer you. Ours is 15%, capped, declared upfront, the same on every market.

If the true probability is 50%, the fair payout is 2.0×. We pay 1.7×. That's the vig — and that's the entire business model.

Will Davos get >350 cm by 2027-03-31?

True probability: 18%; ← from data
Fair payout: 5.55×; = 1 / 0.18
VigFi vig: 15%; ← always
Your koef: 4.72×; = 5.55 × 0.85

You bet €100 → max win €472

Your max loss €100 (your stake)

No margin call. No leverage debt. No surprise fees.

Licensed · regulated · geofenced

Where we operate.

Licensed byTobique Gaming Commission via DLAG──── #TGC-2026-XXXX

Live in5 markets──── 8 more, Q4 2026

Geo-blocked atWAF + KYC + payment──── 11 jurisdictions

We're not a sportsbook.

We're not a binary-options site.

We're a hedging marketplace where the underlying
is the real world.

Every business hedges weather, prices, and demand.
We just sell the hedge as a ticket.

Built in Riga

We've been the people who hedge.

Mārtiņš grew up between the Latvian countryside and the Riga financial district. Lauris built trading systems for a decade.

Both of us watched insurance and derivatives markets get used by a few — banks, governments, large corporates — to protect against exactly the things every farmer, every small hotelier, every bakery already lives with.

VigFi is the version of those tools that fits in a pocket. The same data, the same math, settled the same way. Rebuilt around the people who needed it most all along.

— Mārtiņš Ivins & Lauris

Spring 2026

Be the first to predict..

We're opening to a small private beta this spring.

Drop your email — we'll write once when the gates open.